Analyzing the probabilities in UoC

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Analyzing the probabilities in UoC

Unread postby Wartath » Thu Mar 29, 2012 9:58 am

I thought I'd start a new topic about the probabilities in UoC. I was interested in the probability of inflicting suppression status with air attacks, so I did a little table about different outcomes:

Modifier and effects

+1 || 50 % suppressed || 50% kia
+-0 || 17% no effect || 33% suppressed || 33% kia
-1 || 33% no effect || 50% suppressed || 17% kia
-2 || 50% no effect || 50% suppressed ||
-3 || 67% no effect || 33% suppressed ||

• weather: -1 if it’s raining (mud) or snowing
• terrain: -1 if terrain is mountain, forest or city
• dig: -1 if defending unit is entrenched
• green: +1 if defending unit is green (inexperienced)
• city: 10% chance to turn to ruins

So even a single -1 modifier can have great impacts on the protection of units against air attacks. A simple terrain/weather/entrenching modifier cuts down kia-results dramatically (0-modifier roll can get you a 2 kia result, while the worst possible result for -1 roll is a 1 kia). A good idea is to entrench in woods, mountain or city, because a -2 modifiers cuts the possibility of kia results to zero. Although your unit might lose their entrenchment stats via air attacks, then at least you made your opponent waste an extra air attack against it. :twisted:

What do you think about air attacks? Do you have different views about them, than those represented here?

I would also like to see similar pondering about different aspects about the game, so I urge anyone, who is interested in these probability calculations behind the game, to write your own views / suggestions in this topic. ;)

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Re: Analyzing the probabilities in UoC

Unread postby Danielefc » Thu Mar 29, 2012 2:48 pm

This is really helpfull - there are a few "bottlenecks" in the game where I actually prefer to surpress steps. Surpression usually affects more steps than KIA. As far as I have experienced this is also the case in ground attacks and in atleast two instances this is very very usefull.

1. If it is paramount to destroy a unit and you know it will take multiple attacks. Rather than attacking with the more powerfull units available immediately I would rather sacrifice a weaker unit to surpress the enemy first. Then move in for the kill with the stronger ones. One KIA is not as good as 2 or 3 surpressed steps if one is going to attack the enemy unit more than once anyway.

A good example is the unit garrisoning Maikop in Edelweiss - Here it is better to attack with ones weaker regular motorized infantry first. This usually inflicts two surpressed steps. Then use the SS and Panzer Divisions to finnish of the matter. If one was two use the latter units first one would only inflict 1 KIA leading to worse odds in all the subsequent battles

2. If a bunch of enemy units are cut off. In this instance surpressed steps are just as good - if not better - than the KIA ones. Since the enemy will not recover from surpression it cannot use them to counter attack and the next turn all those surpressed steps make for really "juicy" targets for gaining experience.

A good example here is the Soviets Stalingrad scenario.