Analyzing the probabilities in UoC
Posted: Thu Mar 29, 2012 9:58 am
I thought I'd start a new topic about the probabilities in UoC. I was interested in the probability of inflicting suppression status with air attacks, so I did a little table about different outcomes:
Modifier and effects
+1 || 50 % suppressed || 50% kia
+-0 || 17% no effect || 33% suppressed || 33% kia
-1 || 33% no effect || 50% suppressed || 17% kia
-2 || 50% no effect || 50% suppressed ||
-3 || 67% no effect || 33% suppressed ||
Modifiers:
• weather: -1 if it’s raining (mud) or snowing
• terrain: -1 if terrain is mountain, forest or city
• dig: -1 if defending unit is entrenched
• green: +1 if defending unit is green (inexperienced)
• city: 10% chance to turn to ruins
So even a single -1 modifier can have great impacts on the protection of units against air attacks. A simple terrain/weather/entrenching modifier cuts down kia-results dramatically (0-modifier roll can get you a 2 kia result, while the worst possible result for -1 roll is a 1 kia). A good idea is to entrench in woods, mountain or city, because a -2 modifiers cuts the possibility of kia results to zero. Although your unit might lose their entrenchment stats via air attacks, then at least you made your opponent waste an extra air attack against it.
What do you think about air attacks? Do you have different views about them, than those represented here?
I would also like to see similar pondering about different aspects about the game, so I urge anyone, who is interested in these probability calculations behind the game, to write your own views / suggestions in this topic.
Modifier and effects
+1 || 50 % suppressed || 50% kia
+-0 || 17% no effect || 33% suppressed || 33% kia
-1 || 33% no effect || 50% suppressed || 17% kia
-2 || 50% no effect || 50% suppressed ||
-3 || 67% no effect || 33% suppressed ||
Modifiers:
• weather: -1 if it’s raining (mud) or snowing
• terrain: -1 if terrain is mountain, forest or city
• dig: -1 if defending unit is entrenched
• green: +1 if defending unit is green (inexperienced)
• city: 10% chance to turn to ruins
So even a single -1 modifier can have great impacts on the protection of units against air attacks. A simple terrain/weather/entrenching modifier cuts down kia-results dramatically (0-modifier roll can get you a 2 kia result, while the worst possible result for -1 roll is a 1 kia). A good idea is to entrench in woods, mountain or city, because a -2 modifiers cuts the possibility of kia results to zero. Although your unit might lose their entrenchment stats via air attacks, then at least you made your opponent waste an extra air attack against it.
What do you think about air attacks? Do you have different views about them, than those represented here?
I would also like to see similar pondering about different aspects about the game, so I urge anyone, who is interested in these probability calculations behind the game, to write your own views / suggestions in this topic.