Without first moving the armour towards Ordzhonikidze, I doubt you could get to the northern military road objective in time for the BV time limit. Without removing that NKVD-backed Rifle division on turn 1, your infantry is essentially stuck. Using less than 3 Panzer divisions is likely to cause you to get stuck as well.
In terms of rolls, you don't need all that much luck for the strategy I used to work, as long as 80%-90% overrun chances don't fail several times in a row and you don't get mud, a BV is not too difficult to achieve with my strategy. In terms of strategy, what I do works every time, it's the things you can't control like the weather and overrun chances that might cause you to not reach the objectives in time, but the AI is powerless to actually stop you with my approach. In the worst case scenario, victory will just be delayed.